NZ Politics Costed

Te Pāti Māori

Announced policies and their four-year fiscal cost. Positive worsens the Government's books.
Net 4-year cost
+$58.9b
Spending & tax cuts
+$142.1b
Revenue & savings
−$83.2b
Already in current plans
$0m
Excluded from this view

Policies by size

Each bar is a policy's four-year cost. Bars are drawn to the same scale.

Income tax overhaul: $30k tax-free, 15% to $60k, 33% to $90k, 39% to $180k, 42% to $300k, 48% above
+$55.6b
Tax: income, GST & excisePartymedium

Party estimate. Our cross-check: static microsimulation on IRD 2025 taxable-income distribution gives $13.9bn at 2025 incomes and ~$13.8bn in 2027/28 - matches. Cuts to $60k cost ~$18.3bn; higher rates (33/39/42/48) recoup ~$4.4bn statically - a behavioural response at 42%/48% (income shifting to 28-33% companies/39% trusts) would raise the true cost, plausibly to $15bn+. Confidence raised to medium. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Source
Double baseline (main) benefit levels to the upper range of WEAG recommendations
+$42.7b
Welfare & income supportOur estimatelow

Method: PREFU 2026 forecasts of Jobseeker Support & Emergency Benefit, Supported Living Payment and Sole Parent Support for 2027/28-2030/31 (10,593/10,424/10,675/10,974 $m) x 100% (doubling). Treated as a lower bound: excludes extra entitlement from higher abatement thresholds and induced take-up; tax clawback minimal under TPM $30k tax-free threshold. No party costing.

Source
Progressive wealth tax: 1.5% on net wealth $2m-$5m, 2% $5m-$10m, 2.5% above $10m (per person)
−$35.2b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartylow

Party estimate, no published method or review. Our arithmetic from party stats (3% of people, avg net wealth $6m): ~126k adults x ~$4m above threshold x ~1.7% avg rate = ~$8.6bn gross, so $8.8bn appears to assume NO avoidance/emigration loss; applying the Greens' 28.5% leakage assumption would give ~$6.3bn/yr. Party claimed $23bn from its 2023 wealth tax. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Source
Universal student allowance at double rates
+$23.6b
EducationOur estimatelow

Method: Greens Green Budget 2025 costed removing allowance eligibility tests at current rates at ~$2.6bn/yr extra (2025/26); PREFU student allowances ~$0.7bn/yr; universal pool ~$3.3bn/yr, doubled = ~$6.6bn, minus $0.7bn baseline = ~$5.9bn/yr. Excludes postgraduate extension and abolishing the parental income test beyond the Greens design. No party costing.

Source
Company tax rate 28% back to 33% (all companies)
−$13.6b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium

Party estimate. Our check: PREFU 2026 gross companies tax 2027/28 $22.1bn x 5/28 = ~$3.95bn static, so $3.4bn is plausible and slightly conservative. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Source
Land Banking Tax at 33%
−$11.2b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartylow

Party estimate; base and definition not published. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Source
Kai Credit ("No GST on Kai"): income tax credit ~$800-1,000/yr for earners under $60k (~3m people)
+$11.2b
Tax: income, GST & excisePartymedium

Party estimate; arithmetic consistent with $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Source
Stamp duty 5% on residential sales (first-home buyers under $1m exempt)
−$8.40b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartylow

Party estimate; implies ~$42bn taxable sales a year; volumes likely fall. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Source
Vacant House Tax: 2% on homes empty 12+ months
−$6.80b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartylow

Party estimate. Implies 2% on ~$85bn (111,700 homes x ~$760k, our arithmetic). Census empty dwellings include baches (exemption unclear); yield erodes as homes are occupied. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Source
International Profit Transfer Tax: 5% on profits transferred offshore
−$4.00b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartylow

Party estimate; design undefined; may conflict with double tax agreements. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Source
Tax enforcement: $1bn investment in IRD, SFO, FMA and Financial Intelligence Unit
−$4.00b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartylow

Party table shows "$1.0 billion" and its $4.1bn net only reconciles if this is a +$1bn net gain (investment cost not netted). RNZ: funding doubled from $500m to $1bn. If treated as a cost with unproven yield, net is ~$2bn/yr worse. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Source
Health workforce development ($1bn a year)
+$4.00b
HealthPartylow

Manifesto: $1bn annually. Assumed additional to Vote Health baseline; partial overlap with existing workforce funding possible but not quantifiable.

Source
Kaupapa Maori mental health investment ($500m a year)
+$2.00b
HealthPartymedium

Manifesto: $500m annually.

Source
Pungao Auaha Fund (solar/insulation retrofits for marae, kura, papakainga)
+$1.00b
Environment & climatePartylow

Climate manifesto: $1bn; timing unspecified. May overlap the Energy Sovereignty Fund.

Source
Free public transport for everyone within 5 years
+$650m
Transport & infrastructureOur estimatelow

Method: replace national PT fare revenue of ~$324.5m/yr (NZTA State of Public Transport, as cited by Taxpayers Union) phased in linearly over 5 years (20/40/60/80% in years 1-4). Excludes extra service costs from higher patronage.

Source
Matai Ahuwhenua regenerative agriculture investment
+$300m
Environment & climatePartylow

Climate manifesto: $300m; timing unspecified.

Source
Kai sovereignty funds: Community Kai Fund, extra Matai Ahuwhenua innovation fund, seed funding for Maori supermarket chains ($100m each)
+$300m
Economy & businessPartymedium

Kai manifesto; with the $2.8bn Kai Credit forms the $3.1bn kai package (RNZ). Supermarket seed funding may be equity (capital).

Source
Matike Mai constitutional transformation fund
+$220m
OtherPartyhigh

Manifesto: $220m over four years.

Source
Maori National Service Defence framework and Maori Taiao relief fund ($100m each)
+$200m
Environment & climatePartylow

Climate manifesto; timing unspecified.

Source
Takatapui funding incl. Takatapui Commission
+$200m
HealthPartymedium

Manifesto: $200m over three years.

Source
Whanau Pakari sport fund
+$100m
OtherPartymedium

Manifesto: $100m over three years.

Source
Toi Maori: research fund, Te Matatini baseline, community kapa haka
+$39m
OtherPartylow

Manifesto: $10m + $19m + $10m; timing unspecified, summed once.

Source
Mokopuna Maori Authority: reallocate 70% of Oranga Tamariki budget (~$1bn/yr)
$0m
Welfare & income supportPartymedium

Reallocation of existing baseline; transition costs not costed.

Source

Analysis notes

Te Pāti Māori – 2026 fiscal platform (as at 6 Oct 2026)

Status:

  • Manifesto: 20 policy PDFs, linked from https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/policy.
  • "Kiwi Tax Plan": released 26 Aug 2026.
  • Not yet published: a fiscal plan, year-by-year costings, or any independent review.

Annual or term totals? (resolved: annual)

The tax table gives a single "estimated fiscal impact" per measure, with no period. No interview we found states the period. Four independent checks all point to annual figures:

  1. The party's own household claim. It says 4.2m people gain "on average, an additional $4,000 per year". That is about $16.8bn a year, which matches $13.9bn of income tax cuts plus the $2.8bn Kai Credit.
  2. Our income tax model. A static model on the IRD 2025 income distribution puts the income tax change at about $13.9bn a year.
  3. Company tax base. PREFU gross company tax is $22.1bn in 2027/28. Moving from 28% to 33% would raise about $3.95bn a year, against the party's $3.4bn.
  4. Kai Credit arithmetic. $800–1,000 for about 3m people comes to $2.4–3.0bn a year.

The alternative reading, that the figures are four-year totals, would cut every figure to a quarter. That is implausible on checks 1–3. Both readings are recorded in the CSV notes.

Headline tax plan (annual, party figures)

Source: tax PDF

  • Revenue, $19.8bn:
    • wealth tax (1.5/2/2.5% above $2m): $8.8bn
    • company tax at 33%: $3.4bn
    • land banking tax: $2.8bn
    • stamp duty: $2.1bn
    • vacant house tax: $1.7bn
    • international profit transfer tax: $1.0bn
  • Enforcement: "$1.0bn", counted by the party as a net gain.
  • Costs, $16.7bn: income tax overhaul $13.9bn and Kai Credit $2.8bn.
  • Party net: +$4.1bn a year improvement, −$16.4bn over four years.

Spending

  • Party-costed manifesto items, +$13.9bn over four years:
    • health $6.0bn ($0.5bn a year mental health, $1bn a year workforce)
    • OWOT fund $4.5bn (capital; half NZ Super Fund loans)
    • energy funds $2bn
    • kai funds $0.3bn
    • other small funds
  • Our estimates for the large uncosted pledges (cost_source=our_estimate, low confidence):
    • Doubling main benefits: $42.7bn. Method: PREFU forecasts for Jobseeker, SLP and SPS over 2027/28–2030/31, × 100%. This is a lower bound.
    • Universal student allowance at double rates: $23.6bn. Method: the Greens' 2025 costing for universalising allowances, plus the PREFU baseline, doubled.
    • Free primary care and dental: $12.0bn. Method: proxy from the Greens' Green Budget 2025 costings. Aspirational wording.
    • Free public transport within 5 years: $0.65bn. Method: fare revenue of $324.5m a year, phased in.
  • Not estimated:
    • living-wage minimum wage (mainly a cost to private employers)
    • writing off the living-cost part of student loans (a balance-sheet item)
    • transferring 25% of health and ACC funding (a reallocation)
    • free medicines delivery
    • higher Pharmac funding
    • transferring Crown land

Net cost (four years, + = worsens balance)

View $bn
Tax plan (party) −16.4
+ party-costed spending −2.5
+ our estimates of uncosted pledges +76.3
Firm commitments only +64.4
Operating only (OBEGAL view) +70.8

Nothing is in the PREFU baseline. The Oranga Tamariki reallocation is entered as zero.

Criticisms and our checks

  • No independent review or published method. RNZ, The Spinoff and 1News all noted this.
  • Taxpayers' Union: it calls the costings "too vague to credibly estimate" and counts only $4.3bn of spending. https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/bribe_o_meter
  • Wealth tax:
    • Leakage: using the party's own figures (3% of people, average net wealth $6m), $8.8bn is roughly the gross yield with no allowance for avoidance or emigration. Applying the Greens' 28.5% leakage assumption gives about $6.3bn a year.
    • Track record: in 2023 the party claimed its wealth tax would raise $23bn.
  • Income tax: the higher rates (33/39/42/48%) win back about $4.4bn statically. Behavioural responses at 42–48%, such as income shifting to companies or trusts, would push the real cost above $13.9bn.
  • Enforcement: the $4.1bn net only adds up if the $1bn enforcement spend is treated as a net gain.
  • Vacant house tax: the yield implies about $85bn of property. Census "empty" homes include baches, and the yield shrinks as homes are occupied.
  • Land banking tax: the base is undefined.
  • Politics: Labour has ruled out new taxes other than its capital gains tax. National called the plan "the biggest tax grab in NZ history".

Key uncertainties

  1. Behavioural yields of the wealth and property taxes.
  2. The design, timing and cost of doubling benefits and of student support, which dominate the net figure.
  3. Whether the funds are capital or operating (OWOT, Energy Sovereignty).
  4. Whether the energy and Pūngao Auaha funds overlap.