NZ Politics Costed

Labour

Announced policies and their four-year fiscal cost. Positive worsens the Government's books.
Cost basis
New spendingTotal announced
Sources
Party figures onlyIncl. independent
Capital spending
ExcludeInclude
Aspirational pledges
ExcludeInclude
Net 4-year cost
+$411m
Spending & tax cuts
+$11.3b
Revenue & savings
−$10.9b
Already in current plans
$12.6b
Excluded from this view

Policies by size

Each bar is a policy's four-year cost. Bars are drawn to the same scale.

Repeal Investment Boost
−$7.70b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium

Using $7.7b, the figure in Labour's 4 Oct fiscal plan. Reconciliation: the $6.6b was the gross cost of Investment Boost over the Budget 2025 forecast window (Budget 2025 documents; interest.co.nz), about $1.7b/yr, partly offset by an estimated $2.6b of growth-driven revenue. The $7.7b is the static revenue gain from repeal over Labour's window, with claims allowed to 30 June 2027 and existing assets grandparented. Four years at about $1.7b/yr, growing with the investment base, gives roughly $7-8b, consistent with $7.7b. $7.7b is therefore the right figure for this window. It is static: lost growth-driven revenue (Treasury: up to 0.5% GDP over 5 years) would reduce the net gain. Hall Chadwick reviewed the plan. Stays medium because no Treasury costing on this window was found. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Sources: https://www.interest.co.nz/business/139697/labours-small-business-policy-aims-raise-gst-registration-threshold-help-small ; https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-to-scrap-investment-boost-if-elected-under-new-plan-for-small-businesses/2Q6FJFC4YRDF3FT5M55FLGQCIA/

Source
Capital gains tax: 28% on gains from residential investment and commercial property after 1 July 2027
−$2.80b
Tax: wealth, capital & businessPartymedium

Labour forecast: $100m 2027/28, $385m 2028/29, $965m 2029/30, $1.35b 2030/31 (sum $2.8b); average ~$700m/yr; long-run ~$1.35b+/yr. Assumes 3% annual house price growth (Treasury BEFU 2026: 3-4%). Exempts the family home, farms, KiwiSaver, shares, business assets and inheritances. Ring-fenced for health. No independent costing found. There is no Treasury/IRD ready reckoner for a new CGT, and the 2019 Tax Working Group design was much broader, so it is not comparable. Stays medium.

Source
$4/hour interim pay rise for ~65000 care and support workers
+$2.50b
Welfare & income supportPartyhigh

$2.5b over four years, in the fiscal plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4.

Source
Medicard: three free GP visits a year (plus screening/scans)
+$2.05b
HealthPartymedium

Labour costing: $393.3m 2027/28, $553m 2028/29, $553m/yr from 2029/30. 4-yr = 393.3+553x3. Annual = steady state. NZ Herald puts GP visits at ~$512m/yr + maternity scans $28.6m + cervical screening $21.6m (~$562m/yr). Funded (ring-fenced) by the CGT. Included within Labour's $15.5b health total. Re-verified against Labour's primary page. Stays medium because Labour ($553m/yr) and the NZ Herald (~$562m/yr) differ.

Source
Reverse public service cuts (half of next Budget's round and all of the following round)
+$2.00b
OtherPartymedium

Reported as 'almost $2 billion'. Annual = 4-yr / 4.

Source
Small Business Action Plan: raise GST registration threshold $60k to $80k and $10k instant asset write-off
+$1.56b
Tax: income, GST & excisePartymedium

$1.56b over four years for the package. Asset write-off starts July 2027; GST threshold starts July 2028. About 35,000 businesses leave the GST system. No split between the two measures was published. This is Labour's only GST change; no GST rate or food exemption change was found for 2026. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Category: mixed package (GST threshold plus a business write-off); tagged to GST as the headline element. There is no IRD ready reckoner for the GST threshold, and no split between the two measures was published.

Source
Rent subsidies for 6000 new state houses
+$760m
HousingPartymedium

Operating cost (income-related rent subsidies) linked to the Kāinga Ora capital build. Annual = 4-yr / 4. years_covered: Labour reports this as a total over the PREFU forecast period (2026/27-2030/31). Spending is expected from 2027/28, so in practice it is a 4-year figure.

Source
School lunches
+$591m
EducationPartymedium

$591m in the fiscal plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4. years_covered: Labour reports this as a total over the PREFU forecast period (2026/27-2030/31). Spending is expected from 2027/28, so in practice it is a 4-year figure.

Source
Graduate nurse job guarantee
+$525m
HealthPartymedium

Labour policy page says $525m; RNZ reports $526m. Labour says it comes from health cost-pressure funding, so it sits inside the $15.5b health total. National says it is missing from the plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Labour's page confirms $525m 'funded from Vote Health cost-pressure funding'. Job offers start from 2027. Labour publishes no year-by-year phasing, so it stays medium.

Source
10% cut to eligible student loan balances
+$420m
EducationPartymedium

Booked as $420m capital (loan write-off). Annual = 4-yr / 4. Labour's page: starts 1 April 2027 and is costed at the fair value of the loans. It also cites 'nearly $40m annually once fully implemented'; how this relates to the $420m is unclear (possibly ongoing cost or IRD administration), so it is not added. [Review 2026-10-06: nature capital -> operating: loan write-down hits OBEGAL, consistent with other parties' write-off rows.]

Source
Reverse heated tobacco excise cut
−$365m
Tax: income, GST & excisePartymedium

$365m in the fiscal plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4. years_covered: Labour reports this as a total over the PREFU forecast period (2026/27-2030/31). Spending is expected from 2027/28, so in practice it is a 4-year figure.

Source
Free prescriptions (scrap $5 co-payment)
+$298m
HealthPartyhigh

$74.5m/yr from 1 July 2027; 4-yr = 74.5 x 4. Funded by the CGT. Treated as part of the $15.5b health total.

Source
Weekly public transport fare cap ($20 in the main cities / $10 elsewhere)
+$260m
Transport & infrastructurePartymedium

$260m over 4 years (NZ Herald, Coughlan). Reconciles with $195m over three years, i.e. $65m/yr, in the NZ Herald of 27 Aug 2026 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-signals-2b-cut-to-transport-budget-to-pay-for-fuel-tax-promise/premium/LINXWXMXFVAP5AUMREGAN7A5EU/). Upgraded low -> medium. Funded by reprioritising ~1% of the NLTF, not new Crown money, so the net Crown cost may be ~0. Annual = 4-yr / 4.

Source
Apprenticeship Boost (incl. $1000 toolbox grant)
+$226m
EducationPartyhigh

Labour primary page: averages $56.5m/yr over 2027/28-2030/31 ($21m in 2027/28 rising to $71.5m in 2030/31). Matches the $226m in the fiscal plan. Upgraded medium -> high.

Source
Māori trades training
+$84m
EducationPartyhigh

$21m/yr; $84m over four years.

Source
Health funding: PREFU cost-pressure track and other health (residual)
$0m
HealthOur estimatelow

Labour states $15.5b additional health funding over the forecast period combining the PREFU cost-pressure track with its announced health commitments. Residual = 15,500 minus the Medicard (2,052), free prescriptions (298) and graduate nurse (525) rows. Mostly matches spending the current Government also pencils in from its allowances, so not incremental vs the status quo. National says year-4 (2030/31) cost pressures are $1.5b unfunded. Annual = 4-yr / 4. In-baseline estimate (method): PREFU 2026 sets out coalition health cost-pressure increases of $1.4b-$1.55b per Budget for Budgets 2027-2029, none in 2030/31 (NZ Herald/RNZ, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labours-fiscal-plan-answers-some-questions-but-leaves-10b-hanging/premium/RJATN744F5CNJOYC4WAVPQ6PJU/). Each increase recurs, so the cumulative 2027/28-2030/31 cost is 4+3+2 = 9 Budget-years x $1.40b-$1.55b = $12.6b-$14.0b. That is at or above this residual, so the whole $12,625m is treated as in-baseline. The low end ($12.6b) reconciles exactly with $15.5b minus Labour's announced health items, which suggests Labour adopted the PREFU track at about $1.4b per Budget. Low confidence: the per-Budget phasing was not published. Re-verified: no published figure for the PREFU cost-pressure total exists, so this stays our_estimate. Years: the PREFU track starts with Budget 2027 (2027/28).

Source

Analysis notes

Labour Party: 2026 fiscal plan and costing

Status as at 2026-10-06: Labour released its full fiscal plan on 4 October 2026, after PREFU. The election is on 7 November, and policies may still be added. Labour has set aside $968m for future announcements. A re-check on 6 Oct found no new costed announcements or revisions since 4 Oct (RNZ live, 5 Oct).

Headline fiscal plan

  • Operating spending: $24.5b over the forecast period. About $15.5b of that is health, which includes the PREFU health cost-pressure track the Government also funds.
  • New revenue: about $11b, made up of:
    • $7.7b from repealing Investment Boost
    • $2.8b from the capital gains tax (CGT)
    • $365m from reversing the heated tobacco excise cut
    • $100m of other savings
  • The remainder is absorbed within the existing operating allowance of $2.4b per Budget.
  • Unallocated operating headroom: $10.5b is left unallocated over four years.
  • Capital: $4.1b of announced capital, inside $12b of capital allowances ($3.5b, $3.5b and $5b across Budgets 2027 to 2029).
  • Fiscal targets: an OBEGAL surplus in 2028/29, the same year as PREFU, and net debt falling towards 20% of GDP. Hall Chadwick reviewed the plan and called its estimates "reasonable assessments". Sources: Labour fiscal plan, 1News, RNZ.

Revenue proposals

  • CGT: a 28% tax on gains from residential investment and commercial property, for gains made after 1 July 2027.
    • Exempt: the family home, farms, KiwiSaver, shares, business assets and inheritances.
    • Labour's yield forecast: $100m (2027/28), $385m (2028/29), $965m (2029/30), $1.35b (2030/31). That is $2.8b over four years, about $700m a year on average.
    • It assumes 3% annual house price growth. Treasury's BEFU 2026 forecast is 3-4%.
    • The revenue is ring-fenced for health: the Medicard, at about $553m a year at steady state, plus free prescriptions at $74.5m a year.
    • No independent costing of the CGT has been published. Sources: NZ Herald, Labour.
  • GST: there is no change to the rate and no food exemption. This differs from 2023, when Labour promised to take GST off fruit and vegetables. The GST registration threshold rises from $60k to $80k from July 2028, packaged with a $10k instant asset write-off. The package costs $1.56b over four years and is funded by refocusing Investment Boost. Source: Newswire.

Our tally (see policies_labour.csv)

Net 4-year figures ($b), 2027/28-2030/31. In baseline means already funded in PREFU 2026. Capital rows ($4.1b: Kāinga Ora, schools, hospitals, student loans, Future Fund seed, solar) hit net debt, not OBEGAL. New spending = total announced minus in baseline.

Total announced In baseline New spending
Labour's own costed items +17.4 12.6 +4.7
Contested or uncosted items +14.7 0 +14.7
All items +32.0 12.6 +19.4
  • Labour's own items: about $24.2b of operating spending, minus $11.0b of new revenue, plus $4.1b of capital. Labour says all of it fits inside existing allowances, so the OBEGAL track would be unchanged from PREFU.
  • In baseline: this is the health cost-pressure residual of $12.6b. PREFU funds $1.4b–$1.55b per Budget for Budgets 2027–2029, which adds up to $12.6b–$14.0b over four years. The phasing was not published, so confidence is low.
  • Contested or uncosted items:
    • full pay equity restoration, $8.5b
    • the fuel tax freeze, $3.2b (National's figure). On Labour's own $1.8b figure, the contested total would be $13.3b
    • Future Fund dividends, $2.7b (National's figure)
    • the fare cap, $0.26b

Criticisms and alternative costings

  • National (Nicola Willis): called the plan "a fraud".
    • It cites a Treasury estimate of $11b to restore pay equity, which would leave Labour $8.5b short.
    • It claims an "$18.8b hidden bill", including $2.7b of Future Fund dividends and the $260m fare cap.
    • It says year-4 health cost pressures are $1.5b unfunded.
    • It says the fuel tax freeze has a $3.2b hole: $4.68b in total, of which $1.48b is already funded by the Government.
    • Sources: RNZ, The Spinoff, National via Scoop.
  • NZ Herald (Thomas Coughlan): says $18.8b "might be a bit of a stretch", but that even a charitable reading leaves about $12b of promises not yet funded. NZ Herald
  • Taxpayers' Union: puts Labour's new commitments at about $33b against $10.9b of revenue measures, and cites $5.5b of uncosted foreign aid. We have not verified the aid figure. Scoop
  • Cameron Bagrie (independent economist): says every party has holes, and that road funding is short for every party from 2028. The Spinoff
  • No Parliamentary Budget Office or independent costing unit was operating for this election. Transparency International NZ

Key uncertainties

  1. Pay equity: Labour gives no cost for full restoration and relies on $10.5b of unallocated headroom. If that headroom is used here, there is little left for future Budgets.
    • The $8.5b is confirmed: Treasury's 2025 estimate of $11b over four years to restore the old regime, minus Labour's $2.5b interim rise (NZ Herald).
    • The Treasury figure is on Treasury's 2025 window, not 2027/28-2030/31.
  2. CGT yield: revenue ramps slowly, with only $100m in year one. It depends on house prices and on how often properties are sold. Labour has not said what it would do if the CGT raises less than forecast.
  3. Fuel tax freeze and fare cap: both are to be funded inside the NLTF by scaling back transport investment.
    • Labour's fuel freeze figure is $1.8b, based on Treasury's ~$300m per 6-month deferral (NZ Herald, 27 Aug). National's is $3.2b. National's figure is already on the 4-year window to 2030/31 ($4.68b minus the Government's funded $1.48b), so we use $800m a year.
    • The fare cap figures reconcile: $195m over 3 years and $260m over 4 years.
  4. Investment Boost repeal: the two figures reconcile once the time windows are taken into account.
    • $6.6b was the gross cost over the Budget 2025 forecast window, about $1.7b a year (interest.co.nz).
    • $7.7b is the static revenue gain from repeal over 2027/28-2030/31. We use $7.7b.
    • Because the figure is static, lost growth-driven revenue would reduce the net gain. Treasury estimated an offset of about $2.6b over the Budget 2025 window.
  5. Future Fund: which assets go into it, and the effect on Crown dividends, are unspecified.