Tax: wealth, capital & business

Using $7.7b, the figure in Labour's 4 Oct fiscal plan. Reconciliation: the $6.6b was the gross cost of Investment Boost over the Budget 2025 forecast window (Budget 2025 documents; interest.co.nz), about $1.7b/yr, partly offset by an estimated $2.6b of growth-driven revenue. The $7.7b is the static revenue gain from repeal over Labour's window, with claims allowed to 30 June 2027 and existing assets grandparented. Four years at about $1.7b/yr, growing with the investment base, gives roughly $7-8b, consistent with $7.7b. $7.7b is therefore the right figure for this window. It is static: lost growth-driven revenue (Treasury: up to 0.5% GDP over 5 years) would reduce the net gain. Hall Chadwick reviewed the plan. Stays medium because no Treasury costing on this window was found. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Sources: https://www.interest.co.nz/business/139697/labours-small-business-policy-aims-raise-gst-registration-threshold-help-small ; https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-to-scrap-investment-boost-if-elected-under-new-plan-for-small-businesses/2Q6FJFC4YRDF3FT5M55FLGQCIA/

Labour forecast: $100m 2027/28, $385m 2028/29, $965m 2029/30, $1.35b 2030/31 (sum $2.8b); average ~$700m/yr; long-run ~$1.35b+/yr. Assumes 3% annual house price growth (Treasury BEFU 2026: 3-4%). Exempts the family home, farms, KiwiSaver, shares, business assets and inheritances. Ring-fenced for health. No independent costing found. There is no Treasury/IRD ready reckoner for a new CGT, and the 2019 Tax Working Group design was much broader, so it is not comparable. Stays medium.

Party costing (Parliamentary Library models); Infometrics reviewed but did not re-cost. Assumes 71.5% collected (28.5% avoidance/emigration loss, Parliamentary Library advice informed by Treasury). Treasury/IRD 2023 advice warned of capital flight and valuation difficulty; Newsroom cites Treasury rule of thumb ~5% of affected population leaving per 1ppt. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 3762/3883/4008/4137. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party costing. Our check: PREFU 2026 gross companies tax 2027/28 $22.1bn; a 5ppt rise on ALL companies would mechanically raise ~$3.95bn, so $1.37bn implies large firms pay ~35% of company tax - looks conservative (Infometrics also said some in-scope firms were omitted). Behavioural response uncertain. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 1370/1436/1502/1570. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party costing. ~1,100 recipients a year. Deloitte: no business exemption; pre-death structuring/avoidance not explicitly modelled. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 953/1001/1051/1103. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party costing using Parliamentary Library models. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 876/922/970/1003. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party costing. Four largest banks; incidence may pass to customers. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 373/388/404/420. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party costing covers only named firms; party says potential revenue greater. DTA constraints and enforcement untested. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 204/214/223/233. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party costing; was mis-added as revenue originally (corrected June 2026, RNZ 615085). Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 100/102/104/106. Annual column = 4-year average.

Party costing. Party yearly figures 2027/28-2030/31: 45/45/45/45. Annual column = 4-year average.

NZF: 'initial annual fiscal cost of approximately $1billion'; claims medium-term self-funding via growth (not counted). Announced 24 Sep 2026. No independent costing found. Could be understated if SMEs pay much more than ~$3.5b of company tax.

Party estimate, no published method or review. Our arithmetic from party stats (3% of people, avg net wealth $6m): ~126k adults x ~$4m above threshold x ~1.7% avg rate = ~$8.6bn gross, so $8.8bn appears to assume NO avoidance/emigration loss; applying the Greens' 28.5% leakage assumption would give ~$6.3bn/yr. Party claimed $23bn from its 2023 wealth tax. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party estimate. Our check: PREFU 2026 gross companies tax 2027/28 $22.1bn x 5/28 = ~$3.95bn static, so $3.4bn is plausible and slightly conservative. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party estimate; base and definition not published. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party estimate; implies ~$42bn taxable sales a year; volumes likely fall. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party estimate. Implies 2% on ~$85bn (111,700 homes x ~$760k, our arithmetic). Census empty dwellings include baches (exemption unclear); yield erodes as homes are occupied. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party estimate; design undefined; may conflict with double tax agreements. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

Party table shows "$1.0 billion" and its $4.1bn net only reconciles if this is a +$1bn net gain (investment cost not netted). RNZ: funding doubled from $500m to $1bn. If treated as a cost with unproven yield, net is ~$2bn/yr worse. PERIOD: party gives one "estimated fiscal impact" with no year. Treated as ANNUAL (four-year = 4x, no growth). Evidence: (a) party says 4.2m people gain ~$4,000 a year = ~$16.8bn/yr, matching the $13.9bn income tax + $2.8bn kai credit costs; (b) our IRD-based microsimulation puts the income tax change at ~$13.9bn a year; (c) PREFU gross company tax ($22.1bn in 2027/28) implies ~$3.95bn a year from 28->33%, close to the $3.4bn shown; (d) kai credit $800-1,000 x ~3m people a year. Alternative reading (figures are four-year totals) would divide every four-year figure by 4; it is implausible for (a)-(c).

TOP annual table: $600m + $30m + $34m.