Health

Labour costing: $393.3m 2027/28, $553m 2028/29, $553m/yr from 2029/30. 4-yr = 393.3+553x3. Annual = steady state. NZ Herald puts GP visits at ~$512m/yr + maternity scans $28.6m + cervical screening $21.6m (~$562m/yr). Funded (ring-fenced) by the CGT. Included within Labour's $15.5b health total. Re-verified against Labour's primary page. Stays medium because Labour ($553m/yr) and the NZ Herald (~$562m/yr) differ.

Labour policy page says $525m; RNZ reports $526m. Labour says it comes from health cost-pressure funding, so it sits inside the $15.5b health total. National says it is missing from the plan. Annual = 4-yr / 4. Labour's page confirms $525m 'funded from Vote Health cost-pressure funding'. Job offers start from 2027. Labour publishes no year-by-year phasing, so it stays medium.

$74.5m/yr from 1 July 2027; 4-yr = 74.5 x 4. Funded by the CGT. Treated as part of the $15.5b health total.

Labour states $15.5b additional health funding over the forecast period combining the PREFU cost-pressure track with its announced health commitments. Residual = 15,500 minus the Medicard (2,052), free prescriptions (298) and graduate nurse (525) rows. Mostly matches spending the current Government also pencils in from its allowances, so not incremental vs the status quo. National says year-4 (2030/31) cost pressures are $1.5b unfunded. Annual = 4-yr / 4. In-baseline estimate (method): PREFU 2026 sets out coalition health cost-pressure increases of $1.4b-$1.55b per Budget for Budgets 2027-2029, none in 2030/31 (NZ Herald/RNZ, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labours-fiscal-plan-answers-some-questions-but-leaves-10b-hanging/premium/RJATN744F5CNJOYC4WAVPQ6PJU/). Each increase recurs, so the cumulative 2027/28-2030/31 cost is 4+3+2 = 9 Budget-years x $1.40b-$1.55b = $12.6b-$14.0b. That is at or above this residual, so the whole $12,625m is treated as in-baseline. The low end ($12.6b) reconciles exactly with $15.5b minus Labour's announced health items, which suggests Labour adopted the PREFU track at about $1.4b per Budget. Low confidence: the per-Budget phasing was not published. Re-verified: no published figure for the PREFU cost-pressure total exists, so this stays our_estimate. Years: the PREFU track starts with Budget 2027 (2027/28).

Party: "around $1.1 billion a year" (announced 1 Oct 2026). Not in PREFU baseline (claims were extinguished by 2025 law); PREFU lists pay equity claims as a withheld specific fiscal risk. Four-year = 4 x $1.1bn, our arithmetic.

TU: midpoint of ACT's own year-by-year projections. ACT: ~$320m extra in yr 1, funded from expected growth in the health budget (no new tax, no cut to the rest of health). TU counts $0 for that reason. Recorded as within the PREFU health allowance, so the full amount sits in in_baseline. [Audit 2026-10-06: cost_source changed from independent to party. The $1.9b is ACT's own year-by-year projection; the Taxpayers' Union tags it (t), meaning party costing taken at face value.]

Manifesto: $1bn annually. Assumed additional to Vote Health baseline; partial overlap with existing workforce funding possible but not quantifiable.

Manifesto: $500m annually.

Manifesto: $200m over three years.